Risky or Rubbish? The real stats on going "overdue"

• 38 weeks - 1 in 8333
• 39 weeks - 1 in 7142
• 40 weeks - 1 in 3030
• 41 weeks - 1 in 1250
• 42 weeks - 1 in 1136

For all pregnancies, including "low", "moderate" and “high risk” pregnancies (i.e. multiples, women with medical conditions and babies with congenital abnormalities), the chance of stillbirth was calculated as follows:

• 38 weeks - 1 in 6250
• 39 weeks - 1 in 2380
• 40 weeks - 1 in 1450
• 41 weeks - 1 in 602
• 42 weeks - 1 in 315

(Muglu et. al, 2019, as cited in Wickham, 2021)

Yet even these figures need to be considered with caution. Some of the included studies are 40+ years old, and rates of stillbirth are lower now than they were then.

We know that although the stillbirth rate is lower amongst each group at 38 weeks above, babies born at 39 weeks and beyond have fewer health complications in the neonatal period, and extracting more babies from the womb as a means to reduce stillbirth before they are ready to be born is likely to be counter-productive.

We also need to consider that most of this data was collected from with countries that favour obstetric-led and medicalised birth models (e.g. US, UK) over physiologic birth, and no breakdown is given between risks by provider, birth location, induction/spontaneous labour/c-sec, or medications and interventions used during birth, etc.

Finally, we must also be aware that induction as a means to reducing stillbirth does not have robust evidence to support it until after 42 weeks gestation, but strong evidence to suggest that induction significantly increases the likelihood of unplanned caesarean section.

When the doctor was giving me the rounds to book an induction, I reminded myself that if there was a necessity to get my baby out ASAP, they would've been prepping me for a c-sec, not recommending a 3-day long induction process starting in 3 days time.

This is not to say that for every baby "all will be well" and to ignore the advice of medical providers as a blanket rule, but it is worth understanding whether there is valid concern for your baby's individual safety, or if practitioner/institutional preference and policy is coming into play.

Stillbirths do happen, every single one is a tragic loss, and it isn't possible to predict who that most unlucky "1 in ..." will be. That said, some stillbirths are preventable, and we can reduce the risk for some babies.

Here is what I would like to see happen: 

• Risks presented as actual numbers, like the presentation of those on previous slides, without fear-mongering or coercive tactics;
• A thorough discussion of the pros and cons of "watchful waiting" vs induction according to your individual situation, and the likely outcomes of each at each particular hospital;
• Information and education provided to pregnant women and parents that can help reduce risk of stillbirth rather than practitioners only focusing on gestational age, as this is currently not a common feature of standard antenatal care.